Economic & Supply Concerns, Concisely Explained....

I have to say, this video is excellent. It shows a comprehensive view of where we are and where we may be going. Complete with informative pie charts, have a look (18 minutes, but you can stop at 15:30, well worth your time!)…

Joe Blogs ~ Panic Spreads

From the notes:

“In today’s video, we take a deep dive into the growing economic fallout from the ongoing war in Iran — and this time the warnings are coming directly from major global companies. Quarterly earnings reports and shareholder updates are now revealing the real-world impact of soaring oil prices, supply chain disruption, rising shipping costs, inflation pressures, and operational chaos across multiple industries.

Airlines, automotive firms, chemical companies, consumer brands, logistics businesses and tech companies are all now reporting financial damage linked to the crisis in the Middle East. With oil prices remaining above $100 and no clear resolution in sight, the risks to the global economy continue to grow.

The big question now is whether this escalating situation could push the world towards recession.”

“Coming Food Crisis”...

…Predicted in Financial Times Essay (UK)

From Hunger Notes, excerpt…

The contraction in exports from the Middle East is not just a short-term increase in price for agricutural inputs; it risks actual production shortfalls in upcoming harvests.  Rising energy prices always raise food prices.

…sulfur, urrea, and ammonia from the Middle East are key components of farm inputs in China, India, Brazil, Morocco, Indonesia, Australia, the United States and other countries.

…The essay argues that this is a slow-moving yet systemic crisis as farmers plant less now, with resulting smaller harvests months ahead, leading to further increases in food prices later this year.  FT recognizes that poor countries will be hit harvest [hardest? both words work].  While wealthier countries will experience inflation, low income countries may face famine.

Oil-Based Lubricant Supply: One of Many Issues Right Now

EXCELLENT ARTICLE From LinkedIn News (this is written from a business perspective, but is useful for anyone, in understanding what we are facing)…

“The shortages haven't arrived yet. But they're coming. Here's your realistic timeline and a seven-step playbook to stay ahead of the most significant lubricant supply disruption of the modern era.”

“Supply chains don't break overnight. They have buffers built into every stage, and those buffers take time to deplete. That's why you're probably still seeing relatively normal availability right now. But don't let that lull you into a false sense of security.

…Crude oil that was already on the water before the Strait closed is still arriving at refineries. Oil tankers move at incredibly slow speeds (you could keep up with one on a bicycle), so the last of those pre-disruption shipments won't reach the most distant refineries until late April.

…May through June (weeks 9-16): This is when the real pain begins. Blenders will start exhausting their pre-crisis inventory. Expect allocation and rationing of popular products.

…July through August (weeks 17-24): If the Strait remains closed, we will see genuine shortages of finished lubricant products. This is no longer a price problem. This is an availability problem…You can't run a mining operation without gear oil. You can't run a transport company without engine oil. You can't run a manufacturing plant without hydraulic oil.

…the lubricants industry is facing the most significant supply disruption of the modern era…the pain we went through during COVID in that 2020 to 2022 period is going to look relatively tame in comparison, especially if this conflict continues for another month or two.”

FULL ARTICLE INCLUDING VIDEOS

"These Consumer Goods Could be the First to Vanish...

…as Supply Shock Disrupts Asian Factories”

From Zero Hedge.

Excellent Must-Watch on Oil Flow From the Gulf: What is Coming!

The oil crisis explained

(short video)

War with Iran: Air freight rates expected to spike as Iran war escalates

FedEx, other freighter airlines, suspend operations and detour flights

War with Iran: QatarEnergy Declares...

“Force Majeure” After Halting LNG (Liquid natural gas) Production

Quatar is the largest producer of liquefied natural gas in the world.