EXCELLENT ARTICLE From LinkedIn News (this is written from a business perspective, but is useful for anyone, in understanding what we are facing)…
“The shortages haven't arrived yet. But they're coming. Here's your realistic timeline and a seven-step playbook to stay ahead of the most significant lubricant supply disruption of the modern era.”
“Supply chains don't break overnight. They have buffers built into every stage, and those buffers take time to deplete. That's why you're probably still seeing relatively normal availability right now. But don't let that lull you into a false sense of security.
…Crude oil that was already on the water before the Strait closed is still arriving at refineries. Oil tankers move at incredibly slow speeds (you could keep up with one on a bicycle), so the last of those pre-disruption shipments won't reach the most distant refineries until late April.
…May through June (weeks 9-16): This is when the real pain begins. Blenders will start exhausting their pre-crisis inventory. Expect allocation and rationing of popular products.
…July through August (weeks 17-24): If the Strait remains closed, we will see genuine shortages of finished lubricant products. This is no longer a price problem. This is an availability problem…You can't run a mining operation without gear oil. You can't run a transport company without engine oil. You can't run a manufacturing plant without hydraulic oil.
…the lubricants industry is facing the most significant supply disruption of the modern era…the pain we went through during COVID in that 2020 to 2022 period is going to look relatively tame in comparison, especially if this conflict continues for another month or two.”