Oil-Based Lubricant Supply: One of Many Issues Right Now

EXCELLENT ARTICLE From LinkedIn News (this is written from a business perspective, but is useful for anyone, in understanding what we are facing)…

“The shortages haven't arrived yet. But they're coming. Here's your realistic timeline and a seven-step playbook to stay ahead of the most significant lubricant supply disruption of the modern era.”

“Supply chains don't break overnight. They have buffers built into every stage, and those buffers take time to deplete. That's why you're probably still seeing relatively normal availability right now. But don't let that lull you into a false sense of security.

…Crude oil that was already on the water before the Strait closed is still arriving at refineries. Oil tankers move at incredibly slow speeds (you could keep up with one on a bicycle), so the last of those pre-disruption shipments won't reach the most distant refineries until late April.

…May through June (weeks 9-16): This is when the real pain begins. Blenders will start exhausting their pre-crisis inventory. Expect allocation and rationing of popular products.

…July through August (weeks 17-24): If the Strait remains closed, we will see genuine shortages of finished lubricant products. This is no longer a price problem. This is an availability problem…You can't run a mining operation without gear oil. You can't run a transport company without engine oil. You can't run a manufacturing plant without hydraulic oil.

…the lubricants industry is facing the most significant supply disruption of the modern era…the pain we went through during COVID in that 2020 to 2022 period is going to look relatively tame in comparison, especially if this conflict continues for another month or two.”

FULL ARTICLE INCLUDING VIDEOS

Excellent Must-Watch on Oil Flow From the Gulf: What is Coming!

The oil crisis explained

(short video)

War with Iran: Oil Shortages in Europe & Asia

[Edited since posting.]

Peter St. Onge on X

Note what Mr. St. Onge does not say: It is true the US is the largest exporter of oil, however, we still import quite a bit. Don’t be lulled into thinking there is no potential problem in America. Don’t believe that propaganda.

Here’s more info from the US Energy Information Administration. This site has tons of material on these topics. I assume it is fairly accurate, but nothing seems to be tainted from propaganda anymore. Interesting excerpt…

“Saudi Arabia is also the greatest source of U.S. petroleum imports from Persian Gulf countries. About 12% of U.S. total petroleum imports and 12% of U.S. crude oil imports were from Persian Gulf countries in 2022.”

Oil and petroleum products explained:

Oil imports and exports

Note: Chris Martenson’s most recent audio presentation, “Wake -Up Call #14” refutes the assertion that the US is a net oil exporter (claimed in the link above). He claims we are actually a net importer, when you take into account all of the complexities involved in the analysis. He’s been doing this research for a long time and has written several books dealing with these topics. It is possible that the link above is technically correct, but it is not simply petroleum that is the important issue, it is the grade and its usage that really matters.

War with Iran: Global Energy Crisis Begins

Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar has been bombed by Iran.  This facility produces nearly 30% of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG).  Qatar has suffered other damage to its LNG in the past several weeks.

Here are some facts from my research:

Europe gets about 20% of its LNG from Qatar.  In particular, Germany, France and Italy all rely on Qatar since cutting off Russian gas.

Japan is already scrambling to find alternative LNG.

Cambodia just started panic-buying fuel from Singapore and Malaysia.

South Korea, India and Pakistan are all massive Qatar LNG buyers.

All of this will result in higher LNG prices, electricity bills, manufacturing costs, food costs, shipping costs, heating and cooling costs…and the list goes on.

There will be an inflation shock that central banks will have to navigate.

This will also result in currency instability and a capital flight to hard assets.

This is a global energy crisis at this point and LNG is only part of the story. Prepare accordingly.

Special thanks to a crypto expert named Chen on X, who works for Binance.